Has the turning point arrived? A look at telecoms after mobile's $10bn cable collection
Publish time:2021-11-10     Reads:     Fonts:【BigMediumsmall
On October 12, China Mobile opened bids for 143.2 million core kilometres of common fiber optic cable, with a total of fourteen manufacturers winning the bid. The maximum price of the collection is about 9.859 billion yuan (excluding tax), the average bid price of manufacturers is 9.158 billion yuan (excluding tax), equivalent to 9.3 percent discount landing (see: "10 billion general cable collection 9.3 percent discount landing: boost industry development confidence" article for more information). Combined with the development of the fiber optic cable industry in the past two or three years, this general cable collection can be described as a rise in volume and price, indicating that the industry is gradually out of the trough, towards the direction of healthy development.。

Stability on the demand side remains
By comparing the demand for fiber optic cables from operators in 2021 with that in 2020, it is easy to see that the robustness of the demand side has become an important driving force for the industry to return to a healthy development track.
For China Mobile's head office, it has launched a collection of ribbon fiber optic cable, butterfly fiber optic cable and common fiber optic cable since the beginning of 2021; in 2020, China Mobile has launched a collection of non-skeletal ribbon fiber optic cable, special fiber optic cable and common fiber optic cable. Specific information is shown in the table below.


2020 China Mobile Headquarters Fiber Optic Cable Collection Data

Through the above two tables, it is easy to find that only fiber optic cable collection, China Mobile 2021 collection volume than the 2020 year about 28.2 million core kilometres, which also indicates that China Mobile in the fiber optic cable demand side of a steady increase。

For China Telecom headquarters. On the day of China Mobile's general fiber optic cable collection opening, China Telecom released a pre-qualification announcement for the goods tender for the outdoor fiber optic cable (2021) centralized procurement project, launching a 43 million core kilometre outdoor fiber optic cable collection project, and in the earlier period China Telecom also launched a 2.1 million core kilometre introduction fiber optic cable collection and a 70,762,000 meter prefabricated into end butterfly (round) introduction fiber optic cable product collection. To a certain extent, this indicates that China Telecom's demand for optical fiber and cable remains stable.
In addition to China Mobile and China Telecom, the two main demanders, China Unicom, the non-carrier market and overseas markets all have good demand, and the surge in overseas market demand has become a major development highlight of the fiber optic cable industry in the past two years. In fact, the carrier market, non-carrier market, overseas market is to ensure that the demand for fiber optic cable to maintain a stable, or even a steady rise in the troika, and the carrier market plays a vital role in it.
It can be expected that with the promotion of 5G, gigabit optical network, FTTR and other factors, the future demand for optical fiber and cable will remain stable, and the stability of the demand side lays the foundation for the healthy development of the industry.
Prices gradually recovering
China Mobile's general cable collection not only surprised people in terms of "volume", but also in terms of "price", which is also gratifying. Since the industry gradually entered the trough in the second half of 2018, the precipitous decline in the price of optical fiber and cable has brought enormous pressure on all parties in the industry chain. The bitterly awaited inflection point was shown in this general cable collection. In fact, this year, China Mobile butterfly cable, ribbon fiber optic cable collection project has revealed the price of the good news, manufacturers offer more rational, the winning bid price is more reasonable. China Mobile's general cable procurement project is a better demonstration of this rationality.
Thanks to China Mobile's benign fine-tuning of the bidding rules, a good basis was provided for reasonable offers. The price score was reduced to 40%; the scoring method was changed from the conditional inverse ratio method to the downward guided median price method; and a price linkage mechanism was set up to give the winning vendor a certain amount of bargaining space when material prices rise. China Mobile is guiding the healthy development of the industry through these rule adjustments.
The soaring prices of basic raw materials since the beginning of 2021 have brought unprecedented pressure on optical fiber and cable enterprises, and losses have become the norm for the development of the industry. Long-term losses are not only detrimental to the development of enterprises, but also undermine the healthy and sustainable development of the entire industry chain. Based on the above factors, this China Mobile fiber optic cable offer to improve in the reasonable. However, it is understood that the collection of prices and raw material prices rose by basically the same rate, although the offer to improve, but the enterprise production for the single is still in a slightly profitable state.
China Mobile's procurement is the wind vane of the fiber optic cable industry, both in terms of quantity and price, which will have an impact on the entire industry chain. In order to ensure moderate competition, to protect the subsequent 5G construction supply, and in line with China's requirements on the trend of procurement bidding and communication infrastructure moderately ahead of the construction requirements of the premise, China Mobile bidding rules for benign fine-tuning, coupled with the rational offer of participating bidding vendors, making this general cable collection brought about a relative increase in prices, in line with the requirements of the healthy development of the industry.
If we can continue the good momentum of China Mobile's universal cable collection, it will undoubtedly herald the real arrival of the industry's development inflection point.



 
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