C114, Nov. 16 (Xinhua) -- As 5G enters the commercial scale phase, 6G is gradually becoming a focal area for global technology innovation. 2022 Global 6G Development Conference, jointly hosted by China IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group and China Communications Society, opened in Shanghai on Nov. 15, 2022. Wu Hequan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, shared a ten-year retrospective and ten-year outlook on the intergenerational evolution of mobile communications in a video presentation at the opening ceremony.
A decade in review: 6G technology from the start of 5G research
Wu Hequan introduced that 4G became commercially available in China in 2013, and 5G research also started in 2013, with the 5G technology pillar being basically ready in 2013.
5G control channel using POLAR code was published by a Turkish professor in 2008, to 2016 POLAR was adopted by 3GPP as the 5G control channel coding standard; large-scale antenna theory has been proposed in 1908, to 1998 Bell Labs to establish MIMO test system, from 1998 to 2013 there are more than 20 years of history. "It can be said that the main 5G technologies were available 20 years ago."
Wu Hequan pointed out that 5G had hoped to develop some disruptive technologies, but because of the rush to commercialisation did not focus on continuing to go deeper. 5G is actually an engineering implementation of previous theories, but of course also thanks to advances in large-scale integrated circuit technology and algorithms. The current 6G research is not as rich as the technology accumulated when 5G started, and the theoretical research reserve is insufficient. It needs to start from basic research in the application of new material technology, millimetre wave propagation theory, broadband star-ground communication and network behaviour modelling.
The current situation: opportunities and challenges coexist
The world epidemic has far-reaching effects, the rise of anti-globalisation thinking, unilateralism and protectionism are clearly on the rise, the world economy is sluggishly recovering, local conflicts and turmoil are frequent, global problems have intensified, and the world has entered a new period of turbulent change.
Wu Hequan pointed out that China's development has entered a period where strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist, and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase. Actions against globalisation now range from trade to science and technology, education, markets and various technical organisations, undermining the atmosphere of international cooperation; the politicisation of technical standard setting, with the risk of splitting global uniform standards and unprecedented difficulties in international standardisation; and the unfair treatment of Chinese network products and proposed technical solutions by Western countries, and the excessive elevation of 6G to the level of a means of national confrontation.
Shannon, the founder of information theory, proposed that information is something used to reduce random uncertainty and that the value of information is increased certainty. Wu said that the persistence and recurrence of the epidemic has profoundly affected the economy and society, and the deeper impact will manifest itself in the field of technology. Humanity has greatly increased its reliance on digital production and life, with higher expectations for the development of mobile communications, and society will need a new generation of mobile communication systems in 2030.
Ten-year outlook: 6G commercialisation faces constraints
2030 is the time for the commercialisation of 6G in international standardisation schemes, China wants to achieve carbon peaks and double carbon becomes an important target for communication constraints; the ageing rate in China will reach 25% in 2030, and the digitalisation, networking and virtualisation will advance while the requirements for ageing-friendly information products will become increasingly high ...... This is the The social environment.
In the field of communication, it will be difficult for China Mobile (600941) communication penetration rate to grow more in 2030 relative to the current one, which reached 117.6% in the first quarter of this year and has already reached the ceiling; the number of cellular IoT connections in 2030 is conservatively estimated to be ten times higher than the number of mobile handsets, and in September this year, the number of cellular IoT connections already exceeded the number of cellular-connected handsets; in 2030 It is difficult to see a significant increase in the number of hours per day that Chinese Internet users spend online compared to today, with the average time spent online in China at the end of last year being four hours per day, and there will be no more growth in ten years.
As for the room for growth in the monthly mobile communication tariff expenditure of Chinese users in 2030, the current monthly mobile communication expenditure of Chinese Internet users is about 0.5% relative to the monthly national income per capita, and the upper limit given by the United Nations is 2%, which is four times the upper limit; at the same time, expecting high growth in 6G traffic means that operators' 6G unit traffic tariff needs to drop significantly, and the cost of mobile communication systems also needs to drop significantly. In addition, by 2030, the world's chip technology is estimated to reach the 1nm level, China still has a lot of gaps, and thus 6G architecture solutions should not rely too much on the high process level of the chip.
Wu Hequan said, from 1G to 4G, each generation of mobile communications peak rate is 1000 times higher than the previous generation, which seems to be the law of intergenerational evolution of mobile communications, but 5G and 4G compared to the peak rate is only 200 times higher, 6G also does not have to pursue a thousand times higher peak rate and disruptive multi-access approach. However, in response to new demands and advances in IC technology, along with the development and use of new frequency bands, it will be necessary to introduce a new generation of mobile communication systems every ten years, continuing to improve spectrum efficiency and energy efficiency, and enhancing security.